After an exceptional 2025, where the Copenhagen housing market broke records on almost all parameters, the question on everyone's lips is: What happens now? At TXM, we closely follow the market, and we see a year characterized by continued growth — but at a more moderate pace, and with important structural shifts that every investor and homebuyer should understand.
To understand 2026, it is necessary to start with 2025. Apartment prices in Copenhagen rose by over 20 percent in just one year — a rate of increase that significantly exceeds wage developments and deviates from what we see in other European capitals. The time on the market for properties reached a level not seen since the housing bubble in the mid-2000s, and the supply of apartments in the capital reached the lowest level ever recorded.
The supply of housing is at a record low — especially in the capital — while trading activity has increased significantly. The result is price increases of a character not seen nationwide. This is a dynamic we know well from our own experiences in the market: When there are fewer homes for sale than there are interested buyers, there is only one way for prices to go.
Nykredit expects that apartment prices in Copenhagen will rise by 13.7 percent in 2026 and 3.1 percent in 2027. This is a significant forecast — and the highest of the major analysis house's estimates. Conversely, Realkredit Danmark expects a more subdued increase in Copenhagen compared to 2025, arguing that apartments are now in a price range where demand is more limited.
Experts' forecasts generally point to price increases in the range of 4-6 percent in 2026 nationwide. In other words, there is broad consensus that the market continues to rise — but not at the same pace as in 2025. This is precisely the type of consolidation we have historically seen after periods of extraordinary growth, and it is not necessarily a bad sign. On the contrary, it indicates a market that is normalizing rather than one that is heading for a correction.
The price development in Copenhagen is not random and is not only driven by speculation. It rests on solid fundamental factors.
In 2015, 37 percent of Danes lived in urban areas with more than 50,000 inhabitants. By 2025, that figure has risen to 42 percent, and nothing suggests that this trend will reverse. The pressure on housing in Copenhagen is structural and long-term — not a temporary phenomenon.
In Copenhagen, owner-occupied homes constitute only about 22 percent of the total housing stock. This is an extraordinarily low share compared to many other European cities, meaning that any increase in demand hits a market with limited supply flexibility.
Relatively few new homes have been built in recent years, contributing directly to the record low supply. New construction is still part of the solution, but it takes time from decision to key handover — and in the meantime, it absorbs the existing market pressure.
In 2026, Danish consumers' purchasing power will be boosted by lower taxes in the form of a new middle tax, a higher threshold for the top tax, and a higher employment deduction. The reduction in the electricity tax alone corresponds to an interest rate drop of 0.25 percentage points when buying an average house.
At TXM Real Invest, it is our philosophy to always present the market nuanced. Even in a strong market, there are factors that deserve attention.
The National Bank has warned that the significant price increases in Copenhagen could be self-reinforcing if driven by expectations rather than fundamental values. The National Bank points to the risk of an expectation-driven price bubble — that expectations of higher future prices create price increases today.
Additionally, new rules will come into effect in 2026. From January 1, 2026, the threshold for the so-called millionaire break in property value tax will be lowered, meaning that more homeowners will pay the high rate. This is a cost that should be accounted for in any investment calculation for properties in the higher price segment.
A theme we expect to gain significant ground in 2026 is the new EU building directive. The directive is expected to focus on renovation rather than demolition and reconstruction, as the CO2 emissions from demolition and reconstruction are so high that it takes many years to recoup that with subsequent energy reductions.
For us as an investment company, this emphasizes the value of our approach, where we specialize in the renovation and transformation of existing properties. The green agenda is not just a regulatory requirement — it is increasingly a market driver, as energy labels and sustainability profiles play an increasingly important role in the pricing of homes.
We see 2026 as a year with solid but more selective opportunities. The time when one almost automatically made money on everything in Copenhagen is coming to an end. The future winners in the Copenhagen market will be those who:
Overall, Copenhagen in 2026 is a market in transition — from a period of extraordinary growth to a more mature phase characterized by selection and quality. It is a healthy shift, and it is precisely the type of market that we at TXM are geared to navigate. For investors looking to understand the broader implications, our analysis of renovation versus new construction returns provides valuable insights into making strategic decisions in this evolving landscape.
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